세계적인 부정선거 탐지 전문가인 미시건대 석학 월터 미베인 교수가 '한국 국회의원 선거의 이례적인 현상과 조작'이라는 2차 논문을 발표하고 조작이라는 결론과 함께 "범죄행위의 단정은 어렵지만 감사의 필요성이 있다"는 의견을 제시히였다.
국내 언론사가 펙트체크라는 이름으로 "반드시 부정선거라고 단정할 수는 없다"는 단서만을 부각시켜 보도한 바가 있으므로 이번에 발표한 논문에 대하여는 어떻게 보도할지 관심이 증폭되고 있다.
다음은 월트 미베인교수의 한국 4.15부정선거 의혹에 관한 2차논문의 서론과 결론을 원문을 복사한 것이다.
Anomalies and Frauds in the Korea 2020 Parliamentary(서론)
The 2020 parliamentary election in Korea is controversial, with fraud allegations. I examine data from the election using eforensics, tests from the Election Forensics Toolkit and the spikes test. This paper improves on a previous version (“Frauds in the Korea 2020 Parliamentary Election,” April 29, 2020) by using updated complete data and by adding Election Forensics Toolkit and spikes test results. The estimates and tests all exhibit anomalies that suggest the election data were fraudulently manipulated.
Conclusion(결론)
Taken together the eforensics estimates and EFT and spikes tests exhibit anomalies that strongly suggest the Korea 2020 legislative election data were fraudulently manipulated.
“Such conclusions are always subject to the caveat that apparent frauds may really be consequences of strategic behavior, but that ambiguity can sometimes be mitigated by exploiting a multiplicity of statistics.... An election fraud will not necessarily trigger all of the statistics and tests, but we think a genuine fraud will in general set off many of them” (Hicken and Mebane 2015, 39).
Statistical findings such as are reported here should be followed up with additional information and further investigation into what happened. The statistical findings alone cannot stand as definitive evidence about what happened in the election.
▲ 월터 미베인 교수
